Harper's Fearless 'Dirty Gary'

<p>Gary Lunn, the federal minister of natural resources, is trying to
push nuclear power, rev up the oil sands, and make way for more
pipelines and supertankers on B.C.'s coast. He also happens to
represent one of the most environmentally conscious ridings in the
country, Saanich-Gulf Islands.</p>
<p>No surprise, he's now the target of a concerted green campaign. But
no matter how well enviros might brand him "Dirty Gary," it's far from
certain that Lunn can be toppled. </p>
<p>When the next election comes, Lunn will be facing not one, not two,
but three small 'g' green opponents. And with the progressive vote
split three ways, many say Lunn could stroll to a fifth consecutive win.</p>
<p>The story of how that happened raises many questions. Like how does
a guy like Lunn win a riding that contains areas synonymous with earth
love and sustainability? And if the environment is the challenge of a
generation, how come environmentalists can't cooperate to take out a
man they all say is one of its biggest foes? </p>
<p><b>Nuclear waste burial</b></p>
<p>Lunn has never been popular with environmentalists. But lately, he's gone from bad to worse. </p>
<p>On June 14, Lunn <a href="http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:6J-JZU6mof0J:www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/comment/story.html%3Fid%3Da3511cf5-f1e4-4414-b0ce-e777ba57ffd8+%22gary+lunn%22+nuclear&amp;hl=en&amp;ct=clnk&amp;cd=4&amp;gl=ca&amp;lr=lang_en%7Clang_fr&amp;client=firefox-a" target="_blank">approved a plan</a> to bury future nuclear waste in 50 metre pits below yet un-chosen Canadian towns. </p><p>The announcement spurred concerns among some that not only was Lunn green lighting a <a href="http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/National/2007/06/25/4287964-sun.html" target="_blank">new generation of nuclear power</a> in Canada, but that nuclear power could soon be used to fuel <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/06/22/peaceriver-nuclear.html" target="_blank">more explosive growth</a> in Alberta's carbon spewing oil sands. </p>
<p>The idea is one Lunn has spoken highly of in the past. </p>
<p>The minister did not return calls for this story. But in an
interview in January, he told CanWest News "[w]e burn a lot of natural
gas to extract that oil from the sands right now. So there's a great
opportunity to pursue nuclear energy -- something that I'm very keen
on." </p>
<p>Lunn has also come under fire for other oil sands initiatives.</p>
<p>The fastest way to move oil from northern Alberta to Asia would be
via pipeline to one of B.C.'s northern ports. However, since 1972,
there has been an understood <a href="http://thetyee.ca/Views/2007/04/30/OilCoast/" target="_blank">moratorium on oil tankers</a> in B.C.'s northern passage, making it impossible to ferry the oil to the open sea.</p>
<p>Or at least that's what everyone thought. Lunn now says that the
moratorium is an environmentalist myth, a great green yeti, if you will.</p>
<p>Earlier this month, Lunn told the Times Colonist that the moratorium
never existed. Instead, he argued, there has only ever been a
"voluntary exclusion zone" banning tanker traffic coming down from
Alaska. In that view, there is nothing in place to stop tanker traffic
originating from Canada.</p>
<p><b>Elected four times</b></p>
<p>That has raised some serious hackles back home.</p>
<p>But before getting to the campaign to de-throne Lunn, it's worth
looking back and asking the question, how did a pro-nuclear, pro-oil
tanker, pro-oil-sands-growth Conservative win this purportedly green
riding in the first place?</p>
<p>The answer is that he hasn't. At least not really, and not yet. </p>
<p>Lunn has won four consecutive elections in Saanich-Gulf Islands. But
up until the 2006 campaign, he had never been on the winning team. </p>
<p>Allan Tupper, a professor specializing in Canadian politics at the
University of British Columbia and the editor of the journal Canadian
Public Administration, said in an interview this week that in the shift
from opposition to government, the electoral "context changes quite
dramatically." </p>
<p>In other words, in opposition, a member can take voter friendly
positions without having to back them with action. You can't do that as
a cabinet minister. The next election, Tupper pointed out, will be the
first where Lunn has a record, both for him to run on and for opponents
to attack.</p>
<p>And attack it they will. </p>
<p><b>Fear of tanker spills</b></p>
<p>Spearheading the anti-oil tanker drive in Saanich is Will Horter, a Victoria-based lawyer and president of the <a href="../../../../../../../../../../../../" target="_blank">Dogwood Initiative</a>. Horter's organization is furious about what they call a backdoor reversal of environmental policy.</p>
<p>"The federal government of Canada considered for 35 years that this
was a moratorium," Horter said in an interview this week. According to
Horter, federal documents that predate Harper all back his position.</p>
<p>But does the issue matter to voters? </p>
<p>Horter thinks so. And to prove it, Dogwood has analyzed the
poll-by-poll results from the last federal election so they can target
areas where Lunn was strongest with door-to-door campaigning, petitions
and public meetings about the off-shore moratorium.</p>
<p>Horter says that most people they speak to don't know about the
moratorium and are overwhelmingly against the idea of oil tankers on
B.C.'s coast. In face-to-face interviews, he said, many are telling
them that they voted Lunn last time, but won't now.</p>
<p>The question, though, is who are they going to vote for instead.</p>
<p><b>We three greens</b></p>
<p>In interviews over the past week, all three of Lunn's likely
opponents in the next election said they intend to attack the incumbent
on the green file. And all three pitched themselves as either the best
candidate to unseat him, or the only one that can be trusted on the
environment.</p>
<p>In the last election, Lunn cruised to an easy victory, despite
capturing just 37 per cent of the vote. That's because progressive
support was split three ways, Liberal, NDP and Green. It was the same,
give or take a few per cent, two years earlier in 2004. </p>
<p>So even if some voters abandon Lunn, if they don't all flock to the
same opponent, it probably won't matter. The candidates, however, don't
look like they're going to make the voters' job any easier. </p>
<p>Julian West is the candidate for the NDP. In an interview, he
acknowledged that vote-splitting could happen and that it could help
Lunn win. But, that said, he sees himself as having the best chance to
knock Lunn off. </p>
<p>The Liberals, West argued, can't be trusted on the nuclear issue.
And what's more, they, unlike the NDP, have never won the riding. The
Green party, meanwhile, which West, a former Green candidate, says he
respects, do not have a legitimate shot at winning.</p>
<p>The Liberals, however, feel the environmental bona fides of their
candidate make them the best choice. Briony Penn was heavily recruited
by all three parties before deciding to go Liberal. Penn is a prominent
environmental activist who lectured for years at the University of
Victoria and made headlines in 2001 by protesting a logging development
on Salt Spring Island with a bare-breasted horse ride through downtown
Vancouver.</p>
<p>In an interview, she said she intends to campaign on the "two n's":
No nuclear and No tanker traffic. The Liberal Party changed, she said,
when they elected Stephane Dion as leader. She chose to run under his
banner because he offered the best opportunity to topple Lunn.</p>
<p>So that leaves the Greens.</p>
<p><b>Vote splitting?</b></p>
<p>There was a time when the Green Party saw Saanich-Gulf Islands as
the most fertile soil for their electoral flowering. The party captured
16 per cent of the vote in the riding in the 2004 campaign and hopes
were high they'd do better in 2006.</p>
<p>Instead, they went the other way. Under the same candidate, Andrew
Lewis, the party's share of the vote fell that year below 10 per cent.
With their preferred candidate having defected to the Liberals, few now
rate the Greens chances in the riding highly.</p>
<p>Matt Price is the director of the Conservation Voters of B.C., an
organization that promotes winnable green friendly candidates in the
province. Price said last week that while his group has not yet begun
the process of considering endorsements for the next campaign, the
Green Party has in the past had a hard time earning their support. The
group endorsed then provincial Green leader Adrianne Carr in the last
election. She finished third in her riding.</p>
<p>With Penn having dropped out of the running, the party's nomination
will almost certainly go again to Andrew Lewis when the riding
association holds its meeting in July. And Lewis, for his part, angrily
rejected suggestions that he is a vote-splitter and said he has no
intention of stepping down and backing another candidate. </p>
<p>And it is the Liberals, Lewis said Tuesday, who are splitting the
vote. Lewis added that he has come under significant pressure to quit
the race and support Penn. When asked from whom, he replied: "Will
Horter, for a start."</p>
<p>"I find it disgusting," Lewis said. "It's anti-democratic. Why don't we try fixing our electoral system?"</p>
<p>Horter, however, denies pressuring anyone. "I think it's
inappropriate and I think it's not accurate," Horter said. "We [the
Dogwood Initiative] do not engage in partisan activities."</p>
<p>The Green leadership, meanwhile, is standing behind Lewis, sort of.</p>
<p>"I think Briony chose the wrong party," deputy leader Adrianne Carr said Tueday. "I think she's truly a Green." </p>
<p><b>How green are voters?</b></p>
<p>Carr and leader Elizabeth May both lobbied Penn hard to consider the
Greens. But that having failed, Carr said, they will not consider a
deal for the riding that would see their candidate drop out. </p>
<p>Of course, even if the green vote magically coalesced around a single candidate, there is still no guarantee Lunn would fall. </p>
<p>The voters in Saanich are hardly homogenous, according to David
Schreck, a B.C. political analyst and former NDP MLA. Just because
residents are small 'g' green, he said, does not mean they are not also
big 'C' Conservative. "The two are not mutually exclusive."</p>
<p>B.C.'s own much vaunted reputation as a green province may also be
overrated, according to a recent poll conducted by Angus Reid
Strategies. Twenty-five per cent of Canadians listed the environment as
the most important issue facing Canada in the survey. In B.C., only 16
per cent said the same. So whether enough voters will make Lunn's
environmental stance the one issue they vote on to make a difference
remains an open question. </p>
<p><b>'Comfortable seat'</b></p>
<p>So what's the fairy tale ending for the green-thumbs of Saanich and
the Gulf Islands? Will Gary Nuclear vanquish his three green
challengers? Or will one of the trio pull away from the pack to best
the Tory minister? David Schreck, for one, thinks he has an answer.</p>
<p>"By no means am I a Conservative booster," he said. But "it would be
a surprise if [Lunn] lost what has been a very comfortable Conservative
seat."</p>